Finance Wanted.

By J Shaw

By Vadim Rob

The truth is out. The traditional argument as to whether technical analysis has any legitimacy as compared with traditional buy and hold stock market investing techniques lives on and the few of us as money managers who seem to have survived, smile knowing much of the argument is amiss in what it is really asking.

I have managed to survive and do well as a money manager. I have watched market advisory services come and go over the years with new ones coming forward with new claims and new participants entering the market ready to eat it all up (or be eaten).

But, what is it that has enabled me to survive as an active manager? Is it my phenomenal skills? Is it this magic thing called "Technical Analysis."? Or is it just simply being in the right place at the right time?

Certainly two of three of those choices could be random. But one thing is not, and that is Technical Analysis. In the traditional sense, as one might read in books, I have never ever found any technical analysis tool to be of any benefit to me in the development of a trading strategy (barring moving averages which I use to introduce intentional delays or to create zones to trade from).

So if I could never use them, then what exactly is it that perpetuates the myth (at least as I see it)? The best guess I can come up with is failure to do a simple test of the obvious. The survivorship bias of most people not staying in the game for any length of time results in new participants going back over the same nonsensical stuff again and again.

So, I decided to conduct a test (actually, I did this 15 years ago but will duplicate it here for you). Real science (as I have done for years) and resolve, once and for all (or at least in portion) this debate.

I conducted a test on the efficacy of stochastics (oscillators in general) as stand alone trading devices. The text book method for the use of these tools in trading is that a condition below 20 means the market is "over-sold" and should be bought. If the oscillator goes over 80, it is then called "overbought", and should be sold.

This all seems very scientific. And, if you look at a chart, your human eye will gladly pick out all the highs and lows the oscillator picked (to the exclusion of all else). Convincing! But as I said, this is science, so we won't rely on the human eye.

Oh yes, you might argue. Stochastics (oscillators in general) can be used in other ways than for overbought or oversold conditions. I full heatedly agree. But the principle in the following tests will still stand. So, bear with me...

Let's look at a scatter plot of a stochastic oscillator for various levels five units of time into the future. This picture will tell us everything we need to know about stochastics (on the given time frame) without any messing around (this is what scientists do) -

The graph is made up of over 3000 data points on a 5 minute chart, looking 25 minutes into the future. Now before your brain shuts off, don't worry. It is not that scary. Simply, it shows us that on this particular test, for values of the stochastic oscillator above 80 (that is supposed to be a sell signal) the returns vary from -10 to +10 points overall. In fact, the returns vary from about -10 points to +10 points overall. Over on the left, it does show there were about 5 events (grey dots) where there were declines of as much as 20 points, but over all, the graph is random (evenly distributed). On the bottom of the graph, we can see, below 20 (that is supposed to be a buy signal), the returns are also distributed from about -10 to +10 points. The middle ranges are also similar. This tells us that the distribution of prices 25 minutes into the future on a stochastic oscillator are... (oh no Rob, don't say it) RANDOM!

There, I said it. Random!

If you had traded using the 80/20 rule over the period of this test, holding 25 minutes on each trade, you would have lost over $3000 not including commissions. Next time you think about using an oscillator in the textbook traditional sense, remember this.

The fact is, this test result will hold true for just about any time frame on oscillators and just about any other technical analysis indicator. As the time frame increases, it may become more reliable (at least on stock indexes). In many other cases and markets will actually be the opposite (ie. Buy 80 and sell 20).

Maybe the age old debate will linger on? Maybe I have put it to rest? I think not. Though I am sure I will get some responses to this (and I hope I do) so you can send me your technical indicator. I will gladly test it for you and send you the scatter plot with an interpretation (subject to my own scheduling). Fact is, I have never seen a technical analysis indicator hold up to this type of scrutiny and this is one of my "nice" tests ;-)

This article is not to discourage the use of oscillators or other technical analysis tools. Quite the contrary. Tools do have their places depending on the intent and design. I always encourage trading based on a solid premise. Getting at the testing of the premise is key, and scatter plots is one great way to cut through a lot of garbage and find truth quickly and save you from a lot of heartache. It only took a couple minutes to set up this test. I encourage you to do the same, or, send your indicator or trading system to me and I will test it for you and help you with logic and improvements if I am able...

When you find a solid premise to work on that holds up to stringent testing, you can start making some good money trading with it. Knowing where you are through testing makes the psychological component of trading easier, lending to the mental success cycle required to succeed financially. Asking the right questions can put debates to rest and lead you to greener pastures.

For more info please visit my blog at http://eminiforecaster.com/blog

By Julian Davidson

Franklin D. Roosevelt, the former President of the United States of America was the driving force of the enactment of the Emergency Banking Act or also known as the Emergency Banking Relief Act during the era of Great Depression. Emergency banking Relief Act was passed on March 9th of 1933. This act has created a plan that would terminate the services of those banking institutions that cannot satisfy their clients' needs any longer as far as banking is concerned while giving chance for those banks that has enough funds to resume and to undergo new changes in their organization. On the 5th day of March, 1933, just one day after President Roosevelt took the seat of presidency, he ordered a special meeting of Congress wherein a 4-day bank suspension is to be implemented to provide enough time for the federal inspectors to declare those banks that has the capacity to operate again. The federal inspectors are the only official governments who are allowed to declare if a particular financial institution is financially stable or not.

The Emergency Banking Relief Act has granted the Treasury Secretary the power to seize the gold of the private civilians in the return for a corresponding amount of paper money which will be subjected to later reduction of its value in connection to the gold. Though this bill has an immense significance, it was rather passed too quickly that most of the congressmen did not have the time to read it. Most of them only had the chance to know about the bill when it was read to them by the clerk of the congress. Some congressmen were against to the fast passage of this bill; however, it was still passed. After 10 months of the bill's enactment, 5,000 banking institutions have passed the federal inspection and were ordered to resume their services and operation. Majority of banks promptly reopened and the trust of the people on the banking institution was re-established.

However, this bill was only a transient solution to a more problematic situation. In the following year, the 1933 Banking Act was later passed which provides more stable and long-lasting resolution to the banking problems; this includes the creation of FDIC or the Federal Deposit Insurance Company. FDIC is a government organization that helps secure the money of the depositors. In order for the depositors to be eligible for this, their deposit should not be less than 100,000 and their bank should be a member of FDIC. President Roosevelt was first against to the idea of establishing FDIC; he argues that this kind of insurance will only give protection to the irresponsible banking institutions but soon conceded when he saw that the support of the Congressmen was overwhelming. Roosevelt's fear came to a realization when he appointed Leo Crowley- a banker from Wisconsin, in 1934 to head FDIC. He learned that Crowley was using FDIC to hide his money fraud activities. Crowley's embezzlement was only made public in 1996.

The enactment of Emergency Banking Relief Act in 1933 has helped many private banks to re-establish their businesses in the middle of disastrous years of Depression Era which made the clients to lose hope in the banking industry.

Julian Davidson is a banking specialist and has written many bank related articles to help people save money and avoid the traps.

Learn about one of the best online banks Capital One Banking or to learn about other online banks visit http://www.onlinebankingmart.com/ - A popular banking website that provides you with inside information on all the major banks.

By Ian Robinson

Your business may not be a high-profile company that makes headlines every month but that does not mean you cannot have the same problems as Northern Rock or Bradford & Bingley. After years of being successful and profitable you may find that your company is currently having financial difficulties and you need more cash. Before you set out to raise more cash any way you can imagine, take the time to speak to a lawyer and discuss all your legal options.

It is important that any business acts early when they start to see a decline in finances. You need to review your businesses cash flow on a regular basis even if you have an accountant or a financial department. Whilst you may delegate the financial process of your company to other people, do not make the mistake of not reviewing the financial statements. Stay up-to-date with your company's finances and you will be able to adjust quickly when financial difficulties start to appear.

If you do find your business is in need of more cash do not panic and start making poor decisions that could jeopardize your business. Whilst it is important to plan for a downtimes and be proactive before the creditors start calling, sometimes the problem will catch you by surprise and you may find yourself needing to take action quickly. The Companies Act of 2006 sets out the duties directors owe a company and you need to ensure that you follow these guidelines. Speaking to a lawyer can help you keep on top of the current regulations and verify that your company is following all the appropriate laws for every country your company does business in.

If you trade while insolvent you could be breaking the law. Whilst you may be panicked due to your company's cash flow problems, it is important to take the advice of your lawyers and financial personnel in order to make sensible and legal decisions for your business. You may need to make some tough choices that require you to change the structure of your business. You may need to let some of your employees go but whatever decisions you need to make you should discuss your choices with a lawyer to always confirm you are following the appropriate laws correctly.

It is understandable to make foolish and short sided decisions when your business is in trouble. If you built a large company from the ground up, you may be feeling that the company's financial problems are your own problems. It is important that during tough financial time you take charge and make arrangement with any creditors.

If you need assistance in negotiating settlements and arrangements with creditors a experienced solicitor can assist you with the process.

It may be possible to sell off the shares in the company or the company assets instead of liquidating the entire company or filing for bankruptcy. You may be able to save your company and rebuild once your cash issues are resolved. A solicitor can help you plan your business future and keep you focused during a very difficult time in your business career.

This article is free to republish provided the authors resource box below remains intact.

Ian Robinson is the managing partner of a Hampshire Employment Solicitor Firm - Churchers - who are also leading Conveyancing Solicitors in Hampshire